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Deep Research on US Mortgage & Housing Market

Mortgage advisors need more than opinions – they need data. This prompt turns ChatGPT into your personal research analyst, gathering the latest national and local insights on mortgage rates, housing inventory, affordability, credit trends, and economic indicators. You’ll get a concise, decision-ready report that blends credible sources with practical takeaways for your business.

The prompt goes beyond headlines to give you what actually matters: verified data, clear summaries, and actionable insights for the next 30–90 days. It covers everything from rate spreads and housing supply to policy updates, buyer behavior, and lender competition – all formatted for easy use in client conversations, market updates, and strategic planning.
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Prompt:

You are a senior mortgage market analyst supporting a US mortgage advisor. Conduct a deep research scan of the current mortgage and housing market and produce a concise, decision-ready report that blends national context with local insights for my market.

Objectives

  • Deliver up-to-date insights with clear citations, publication dates, and links to primary sources.

  • Combine macro → meso → micro layers (US → state → local/MSA/county) and turn them into practical implications and next steps for origination, pricing conversations, pipeline strategy, and client education.

Scope (cover both National + Local)

  1. Rates & Funding: 10Y UST trend, mortgage-Treasury spread, MBS pricing/spreads, Freddie Mac PMMS, lock volumes, refi vs purchase mix.

  2. Demand & Supply: Inventory (new/existing), days on market, new listings, months of supply, housing starts/permits/completions, price levels and MoM/YoY trends.

  3. Affordability & Credit: Payment-to-income, MCAI/credit availability, DTI/LTV trends (where available), wages vs payments, rent vs buy break-evens.

  4. Performance: Delinquencies/foreclosure starts, prepayments/turnover, forbearance (if relevant).

  5. Economic Backdrop: CPI/PCE, unemployment/payrolls, consumer sentiment, Fed funds path and forward guidance, yield curve shape.

  6. Regulatory & GSE Updates: FHFA/Fannie/Freddie policy notes, LLPA/MI/HFA updates, FHA/VA/USDA changes, CFPB actions impacting marketing/fees/disclosures/AI use.

  7. Competitive Landscape: Lender mix (IMBs/banks/credit unions), notable pricing/credit changes, channels (retail/wholesale), local competitive signals.

  8. Client Segments: First-time buyers, investors, veterans—implications for each (program fit, hurdles, messaging angles).

Required Sources (use and cite when applicable)

  • Primary: MBA (Weekly Apps, Forbearance, MCAI), Freddie Mac (PMMS), Fannie Mae ESR, FHFA HPI, HUD/FHA, VA, USDA, US Census (starts/permits), BLS (CPI/jobs), BEA (income), Federal Reserve (FOMC statements/SEP), CFPB.

  • Market Intelligence: CoreLogic, ICE Mortgage Monitor (Black Knight), Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com.

  • Local: MLS or Realtor association reports for the specified area.

Output Requirements

  • Executive Summary (≤200 words) with date stamp.

  • Key Metrics Table (national vs. local): rates, inventory, MoM/YoY price, affordability proxy, applications (purchase/refi), days on market.

  • Trend Drivers (bullet list): what’s pushing/pulling rates, demand, supply.

  • Scenario Sketch (Next 90 Days): Base / Upside / Downside with probabilities and advisor implications (pricing talk tracks, lock strategy notes, pipeline risk).

  • Segment Notes: one-paragraph guidance each for first-time buyers, investors, veterans—program angles, risks, messaging.

  • Advisor Actions (5-7 bullets): practical moves (e.g., lock/float posture cues, content topics, partner convos, scripts).

  • Watchlist & Calendar: upcoming releases (CPI, Jobs, FOMC, PMMS, MBA apps, FHFA/FHFA HPI dates) with exact dates for the next 6 weeks.

  • Citations Section: numbered list with source name, publication date, and URL.

Process

  1. Search the latest reports; capture exact publication dates and quote only current cycles.

  2. Cross-verify critical figures across at least two sources when possible.

  3. Note what changed since last month/quarter (delta, not just level).

  4. Prioritize clarity: short sentences, bullets, and a single summary table; no jargon or rate advertising.

  5. If a metric isn’t available locally, provide the closest proxy and label it clearly.

Formatting

  • Use clear headings, bullets, and one comparison table.

  • Keep the main report under 900 words plus the table and citations.

Use the details below to personalize your research:
– Local market (city/county + state or MSA):
– Client focus (first-time buyers / investors / veterans / mixed):
– Time horizon emphasis (next 30 / 60 / 90 days):
– Any lender/program emphasis (FHA / VA / Conventional / Jumbo / DPA):
– Competitive notes (optional):

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